Mathematical model

The Event Strain Index (ESI)

Quantifying population demand against institutional capacity in real time, without retaining identity.

Core strain equation
ESI = ( Vcurrent / Vbaseline ) × ( 1 + Surgency / Ccapacity )
Vcurrent / Vbaseline
Intent velocity ratio
Current 15-minute sliding-window signal volume relative to the 30-day trailing regional baseline.
Sₓ
Urgency multiplier
Proportion of high or immediate urgency signals relative to general monitoring traffic.
Cₓ
Institutional reserve
Verified operational throughput of local resource providers, responder bandwidth and volunteer density.