Mathematical model

The Event Strain Index (ESI)

Quantifying population demand against institutional capacity in real time, without retaining identity.

Core strain equation
ESI = ( Vcurrent / Vbaseline ) × ( 1 + Surgency / Ccapacity )
Vcurrent / Vbaseline
Intent velocity ratio
Current 15-minute sliding-window signal volume relative to the 30-day trailing regional baseline.
S
Urgency multiplier
Proportion of high or immediate urgency signals relative to general monitoring traffic.
C
Institutional reserve
Verified operational throughput of local resource providers, responder bandwidth and volunteer density.